Are things slowing down?

I agree with those who have said it's probably because it's summer
now, and people are out doing things. I know that I buy (and make)
more in winter, because I'm stuck indoors all day, the weather is
depressing, and my joints are giving me all kinds of hell because it's
cold. So I buy a lot of beading supplies as doing beadwork cheers me
up, and doesn't require doing something like moving from my nice warm
room.

There is also the fact that the economy isn't that great right now. I
know the job market where I live is horrible, and a lot of people just
don't have the spare cash for anything that isn't strictly necessary.

-amber.

Is it just me, or are things slowing down? Has anyone else noticed their
sales slowing ... or stopping? I was looking at the different Yahoo groups
for beading... and the posts in the groups have been dwindling, especially
this month. What's up? Has the beading craze peaked and on the downslide? I
hate to be a party pooper, but the trends are alarming me.
--

They are just that trends! The market is always shifting and changing. With
the warmer months coming (or already here) it might be a change for the better.
You can just tell by observing people that there is a lot of variety in the
jewelery/beadwork that they are wearing. It helps especially if you have some
kind of niche related to your specific beads. And there may be markets out
there that you haven't even considered yet plus add that to offline marketing
and promotion as well - it shouldn't be a dry spell for long.


Rose
"Can you make money on the Internet?-YES!
http://members.aol.com/Roseb441702/consult.htm

I really appreciate all of the thoughtful comments on this topic. It's given
me a lot to think about. I'm probably going to quit auctioning for a
hile - I want to be outside too! But my website is staying up...

Anybody got any ideas for promoting a website? I periodically submit to
search engines... but there's a lot of competition there too.

Hubby and I have talked about finding a retail outlet for our finished
pieces (other than online). Now we just gotta put legs to our thoughts! I
guess we're both kinda shy about promoting ourselves also.

Thanks again for all your comments! It has given me some hope after all.
--
Karleen Page/Vibrant Jewels
Vibrant Jewels Online Bead & Jewelry Store
http://www.vibrantjewels.com/jewelry/welcome.htm
JustBead Auctions
http://www.justbeads.com/search/ql.cfm?s=21770
PayPal Merchant Account
https://www.paypal.com/mrb/pal=7XJ98L86Z7S2C
"Kalera Stratton" wrote in message
...
I agree with everything you said (call me Ms. Me Too!) and I want to add
one more thing... it's very likely that the thing that will spell the
end of the current crafting boom will be an improved economy. More
people working leaves less time for crafts and more money to buy
finished products... and a lot of the people who got into beading while
un- (or under-) employed will still have the increased awareness and
desire for beads, but suddenly will have money instead of free time...
and they'll be even more likely to buy from the core of people still
left doing it.

Look at lampworking... I can't imagine ever lighting a torch and then
just deciding not to do it anymore, but for many people who try it, and
even really enjoy it, it becomes impractical for one reason or another.
Maybe they have kids and don't have time, or find their dream job, move
to a condo where it's not allowed, learn more about safety issues and
decide they don't have the wherewithal to truly do it safely... whatever
the reason, the result is a person with a highly honed sense of
appreciation for the art. A customer, and furthermore, someone who can
tell their friends exactly why those darn beads ae so expensive. That is
an asset to the whole community!

-Kalera
http://www.beadwife.com
http://www.snipurl.com/kebay


Kathy N-V wrote:
On Sat, 15 May 2004 12:22:36 -0400, Karleen/Vibrant Jewels wrote
(in message . net):


Plus why would the American economy affect sales from other countries?


Because most beading compents are imported. The value of the dollar has
dropped against the value of other currencies, making beads and such
more
expensive. All the vendors I use have been mailing messages, saying that
they've eaten cost increases up until now, but are being forced to raise
prices. Others have quietly shrunken their packages or raised "postage
and
handling" to cover the increases in cost.


LOL Just wondering if I'm wasting my time in a business where
interest is dwindling and/or the market is saturated.


I doubt it's saturated, because it seems that everybody and his brother
is
now adding or expanding a bead department, especially the big craft
stores.
They cannot be dismissed, as they are a huge part of the phenomenon
you're
seeing. Beading is still incredibly popular, and I suspect it will
remain so
for quite a while, or the major retailers would not have made the
investment
in inventory and store space.

That's part of what's biting you in the butt right now, too. The masses
have
discovered that one can make something darned attractive for a couple of
bucks worth of beads from Michael's. Sure, it's nothing like what an
experienced artisan could make, but it doesn't cost anything like that,
either. For the $30 bucks or so outlay in start up supplies, a crafty
person
can make a couple of pretty things, and if she doesn't become addicted,
she
really hasn't lost a lot of money.

Of those that show further interest in beading, most will never go
beyond the
craft store for their supplies. Some of the ones who make it to a local
bead
store will experience sticker shock and go scampering right back to the
craft
store, because "those little bead stores are so overpriced."

When you're new at this, it's hard to tell quality at a glance. I
barely
have to blink before I turn my nose up at mass-produced lampwork, fake
turquoise or gold plated brass that will turn green in a week, but that
hasn't always been true, and the dregs of my bead boxes show that. I
keep
finding crappy stuff I bought when I was just starting out, and keep
shipping
it off with DD to school. It takes a long time, as well as trial and
error
to learn what works and what doesn't, and where you can cut corners on
pricing.(essentially nowhere)

Then comes the fallout. That dream of working at home, making a few
pieces
here and there, and not having to go to a job evey day falls apart. The
reality is that making handbeaded jewelry is a long, hard slog, and that
very, very few people make decent money at it. If it were easy, the Big
Boys
would have done it long before you thought of it. (And they have - look
at
the crappy beaded stuff imported to your favorite discount store and
sold for
pennies)

So we have a whole bunch of people who try beading as a hobby with
materials
from the hobby store. A bunch of those people quit, and a smaller
subset
goes on with the hobby. Those people get their materials from a local
bead
shop, or if someone clues them in, a Fire Mountain Gems kind of place.
They
will never, ever make the minimum wholesale order for many suppliers,
and
they don't care. They're making a bracelet for Aunt Ellie and maybe
they'll
give those "barefoot sandals" a shot. If they buy even one issue of
Beadwork
or Bead and Button, they'll feel intimidated by most of the projects
(which
many of us dismiss as "too easy") and outraged at the prices - "My God!
$20
for ONE BEAD!?!? What are they, insane?"

From the few remaining people, maybe two or three out of a thousand will
have
a real interest in the hobby, wanting to perfect her skills and make
original
items of true beauty. That's the very tiny target market that wants
your
beads, Karleen. They also want Tink beads, and Kalera beads, and...
there is
only so much money to go around.

God knows that a huge percentage of your customers are not reselling
your
beads. They'd never, ever get their money back, and they know it. They
buy
the beads because they love them and want them for themselves. A very
small
percentage sell to retail outlets, and the competition is fierce.

One of the beading

mags this month (can't remember which one) said beading is now a $1
BILLION
industry... wonder who the heck is making all the dough?


Of course there is a billion dollar market in beads, although I suspect
whoever wrote that pulled the figure out of their ear. (Does it include
imported jewelry? How about "handmade" beads from overseas?) Out of
that
billion, a huge portion goes for the kinds of supplies we see in craft
stores, including all that nice overhead so that people can wear blue
vests
with smiley faces and the like. I'd be willing to say that once the big
retailers and the few "direct to public" bead wholesalers (Fire
Mountain,
Shipwreck and the like) are taken out of the equation, 75% of that
"billion
dollar market" is gone.

Right this minute, beading is as fashionable as it was in the late
1960's and
early 1970's. There are one heck of a lot of beaders out there at all
skill
levels. There are beads to be bought everywhere, and that's bad news
for all
of us. My heart aches for the artisans in Bali and Cambodia, knowing
that
their current popularity and flush economy is merely a bubble, and that
their
products will go out of fashion sooner, rather than later. I hope that
there
are other options for these people to adapt and make a living, because
for
the vast majority of them, the beadmaking won't last.

Right after a boom, there's invariably a crash. I suspect that we're
starting to feel rumblings under the surface right now. I predict that
in a
year or two, the bead sections of all the big stores will be in the same
place as the Pet Rock aisle and the "Granny Square Crocheted Poncho"
aisle.
It just won't be fashionable to string a few beads on memory wire and
call it
jewelry.

For those that survive the shakeout, it's good news. There will be a
lot
less competition for the bead-buying dollar. 99% of the people who
bought a
hundred dollar "learn lampwork in your kitchen" will have decided it's
not
worth it. What you'll have are a small core of fanatics, just like you
do
now, with fewer outlets to spend their money. As long as your work
continues
to evolve and improve, you should have no worry. However, this is
definitely
a situation where, if you aren't moving forward, you're sliding back.

Just my two cents, but a thoughtful two cents to be sure,

Kathy N-V

Excellent analysis.

Paula


"Kathy N-V" wrote in message
.com...
On Sat, 15 May 2004 12:22:36 -0400, Karleen/Vibrant Jewels wrote
(in message . net):

Plus why would the American economy affect sales from other countries?

I could (and have been) able to tell you work/worked in a professional
capacity of some sort! Don't worry overmuch about employment for the
displace bead workers though - I can almost guarantee they will soon be
employed in the next "fad" what ever that might be. And as for the true
artisans possibly the true "core" of bead people can still support the
market for their wares?? I hope so anyway.

Knitting - how I WISH I could. I can do almost all fiber arts with varying
degrees of skill with the exception of knitting! Tried and tried and never
got the "knack" of it!

What do you predict as the next craze in the art and craft world? I have
been thinking quilting had a huge comeback, now beading, maybe ceramics is
next?

Paula

"Kathy N-V" wrote in message
. giganews.com...
On Sat, 15 May 2004 23:22:08 -0400, Paula C. Hunter wrote
(in message ):

Excellent analysis.

Paula

Thank you. Can you tell I did analysis of customer and website trends as
part of my job? (when I had one)

I've been thinking about this for a long time, though. My biggest concern
is
the people in the third world who are currently enjoying an employment
boom
because of the international interest in beading. When the boom busts,
their
foreign employers and customers will be the first to go, and the economies
in
those places aren't exactly fighting for workers.

In the US, most of us can get a job that isn't making beads for a fraction
of
a cent apiece. That's not true everywhere, and if the bead job goes away,
what will take its place?

I hope that it's going to be a soft landing for all those skilled
artisans.
I think that their only hope is to expand beyond traditional
silversmithing
to adapt to creating beads that aren't immediately recognizable as "Bali"
or
"Karen Tribe." Some of the specialness of the tradtional designs might
get
lost, but the main portion would be saved, and the people would still have
jobs and learn skills so the tradition doesn't die out.

Now, if I could only learn to knit. :-) My mother is about the fastest
knitter out there. She can make Aran knit sweaters in a weekend, and not
one
stitch is out of place. I think it took me two years to make a potholder.
:-(
That's one tradition that isn't being passed along, because none of the
grandaughters have the least interest in learning to knit.

Kathy N-V

I felt like the bead market was starting to overheat a couple of years ago
when I noticed the number of entries in the yellow pages under "beads"
jumped from 2 to 6 (and Michaels and Hobby lobby were not listed). It
reminded me of the baseball card fad about a decade ago. I think there will
always be a market for fine hand crafted anything (whether it is ceramics,
beads, quilts or whatever) even if the market in general slows down.
However, as the pie shrinks the number of people who get a big enough slice
will shrink as well.
Jewelry will never go away. Now that men are wearing it more, the market
can only increase. And most necklaces and bracelets are based on beads of
one sort or another.
So if you are in it for the bucks, start looking for the next thing. If
you are truly interested in beads as a medium (whether woven, strung,
lampworked or whatever), and your work shows it, there should still be some
kind of market out there for you.
As far as what is happening short term, seasonal variations explain a lot
of it.

--
There are no mistakes, only unexplored techniques

I broke down and watched an HGTV special with Carol Duvall at the big crafts
trade show. (Forgive me, it seems like Carol Duvall singlehandedly manages
to "dumb down" everything she promotes). She showed a variety of items but
the majority of them seemed to be geared towards scrapbooking and its
variants. I think paper crafts in general are the Big Thing and may be for
quite a while to come. Makes sense, it's inexpensive and accessible, and
allows people who are semi-creative access to a wide range of designs, etc.
I don't mean to sound snobby, I can't draw to save my life. G If I were
inclined to dress up pictures and save things that way, I'd be all over the
stuff. I think the paints, stamp color blocks and all the other nifty things
to go along with the basics are way cool. But not as seductive as glass is
for me.

I'm hoping the bead furor will die down just a little bit. Just like it
saddened me seeing so many crappy synthetic yarns flood the fiber market, I
don't especially care for all the marginal beads. It takes the "shine" away.
But I remember how it rose and fell in the before (70's for beads, 80's for
fiber), and they're both back.

KarenK

"Kathy N-V" wrote in message
.com...
On Sun, 16 May 2004 10:26:24 -0400, Paula C. Hunter wrote
(in message ):

What do you predict as the next craze in the art and craft world? I
have
been thinking quilting had a huge comeback, now beading, maybe ceramics
is
next?

Fiber arts - knitting, crocheting and weaving with various off-the-wall
fibers. I've seen the selection in the yarn area at the craft stores and
the
discounts stores growing with a variety of material we never would have
recognized as yarn a couple of years ago. I'd bet a large portion of those
fibers will be made of recycled materials, as there is a push to "close
the
loop." People have been collecting recyclables for a long time, and
making
items from this collected materials is bound to happen.

I'm also seeing devices like a knitting jenny spool on a much larger
scale,
which enables people with no knitting ability to make items that look
quite
nice. My daughter has a couple of these looms and is making socks,
mittens
and scarves, as well as hats for herself, her friends and the dog.

The scrapbooking insanity is coming to a peak, and will burn itself out
soon.
I've seen way too many scrapbooking doo-dads in clearance bins lately.
Fine
with me - I never understood the appeal of gluing things to paper once I
was
out of kindergarten.

If the economy rebounds, we'll see a drop in all sorts of all sorts of at
home activities among working aged people, though I expect this will be
cushioned from a free fall by all the retirees. (The baby boomers are
beginning to retire) Ceramics might be in the offing, but I tend to doubt
it. The baby boomer retirees are much healthier and more active as a
group,
and will prefer more active pursuits. They also seem far less likely to
want
an activity they need to attend on a regular basis, and most people
can't/don't/wont make the investment in a kiln. Even more importantly,
they
won't want the mess associated with clay. I have been unable to think of
a
viable business model where people can glaze pre-molded ceramics, because
of
the unlikelihood of a regular repeat clientele, and the huge start up
costs
of a commercial ceramics shop.

Gardening is huge and will only continue to grow, since people will have
more
at home time. Anything that accents a garden should sell well (fused
glass
wind chimes?). In the more northerly climates, I expect that gardening
and
outdoor entertaining will be very important during the warmer months, and
knitting/crocheting/fiber arts will dominate the winter and gift giving
seasons.

Another strong possibility is the sewing of clothing, which hasn't been
popular for quite a while. An older population, with time on their hands,
and the ability to sew (these are people who had home ec in school, and
their
parents lived through the depression era) might reject the shoddy
quality/high price of mass market goods and start making their own clothes
that fit. Electronic sewing machines make that easier than ever, and if
the
economy rebounds, there will be plenty of money to invest in such machnes
and
load of fabric. Making fancy duds for the grandchildren and clothes for
slouching around the house clothes will likely be the first things to take
off, although I could be off there - it might be sewing home decor that
takes
off first, since things like curtains are relatively easy to make and way
overpriced in stores.

All this presents an opportunity to dedicated beaders and glassworkers.
The
baby boomer retirees have money, and don't want to see themselves coming
and
going. They entertain and go out a lot, so they do need adornment. I
think
that showy, higher-end items will sell well (followed by cheaper copies of
the same thing) to those in their 50's and 60's. Nice, heirloom quality
jewelry for children should also do well, as the Boomers lavish gifts on
their grandchildren.

My crystal ball is getting cloudy now, and I'm starting to hurt, so I'll
sign
off now. It will be interesting to see how my predictions pan out over
the
next couple of years.

Kathy N-v

I absolutely agree with this. Quality art is always in demand.

But I do think that eBay might not be a consistent outlet for beads. I
think eBay encourages people to sell, no matter what they have to sell. So
people sell junk because there is this place that allows non-professionals
to sell whatever they want. eBay is basically an electronic flea-market.
Many people sell high quality things in a professional manner. But the
medium (eBay) has some very odd dynamics.

Tina




"Louis Cage" wrote in message
. ..
I felt like the bead market was starting to overheat a couple of years ago
when I noticed the number of entries in the yellow pages under "beads"
jumped from 2 to 6 (and Michaels and Hobby lobby were not listed). It
reminded me of the baseball card fad about a decade ago. I think there
will
always be a market for fine hand crafted anything (whether it is ceramics,
beads, quilts or whatever) even if the market in general slows down.
However, as the pie shrinks the number of people who get a big enough
slice
will shrink as well.
Jewelry will never go away. Now that men are wearing it more, the
market
can only increase. And most necklaces and bracelets are based on beads of
one sort or another.
So if you are in it for the bucks, start looking for the next thing.
If
you are truly interested in beads as a medium (whether woven, strung,
lampworked or whatever), and your work shows it, there should still be
some
kind of market out there for you.
As far as what is happening short term, seasonal variations explain a
lot
of it.

--
There are no mistakes, only unexplored techniques

Summer plays havoc with fabric sales, and according to the owners of the
store where I work, this is a regular occurance. Sales have picked up now
the weather is turning cold (in the southern hemisphere) - more people stay
indoors and craft/sew/whatever their chosen hobby may be.
--
Marisa (AU/NZ)
http://www.galleryvittoria.com
"I am NOT a floozy! I am a goddess..I can do what I like!", said Venus.
'The Adventures of Baron von Munchausen'
"Cheryl" wrote in message
...
Has the beading craze peaked and on the downslide? I
hate to be a party pooper, but the trends are alarming me.
--

summer slump
once it warms up outdoors - people have more things to do -
it's spring - the garden needs tended.
people are going places and doing things...
happens every year...

Cheryl
DRAGON BEADS
Flameworked beads and glass
http://www.dragonbeads.com/

Trust me, the exact same conversation is taking place on the knitting
lists. And if you think you can't make a decent amount of money from
beads, don't even think about knitting.... $200 worth of yarn and 200
hours of work into a sweater that someone will offer $50 for...

Karin (who knits too, but would never ever consider trying to sell it -
NO one could afford it. :-)



Kathy N-V wrote:

On Sat, 15 May 2004 23:22:08 -0400, Paula C. Hunter wrote
(in message ):

Excellent analysis.

Paula

Thank you. Can you tell I did analysis of customer and website trends as
part of my job? (when I had one)

I've been thinking about this for a long time, though. My biggest concern is
the people in the third world who are currently enjoying an employment boom
because of the international interest in beading. When the boom busts, their
foreign employers and customers will be the first to go, and the economies in
those places aren't exactly fighting for workers.

In the US, most of us can get a job that isn't making beads for a fraction of
a cent apiece. That's not true everywhere, and if the bead job goes away,
what will take its place?

I hope that it's going to be a soft landing for all those skilled artisans.
I think that their only hope is to expand beyond traditional silversmithing
to adapt to creating beads that aren't immediately recognizable as "Bali" or
"Karen Tribe." Some of the specialness of the tradtional designs might get
lost, but the main portion would be saved, and the people would still have
jobs and learn skills so the tradition doesn't die out.

Now, if I could only learn to knit. :-) My mother is about the fastest
knitter out there. She can make Aran knit sweaters in a weekend, and not one
stitch is out of place. I think it took me two years to make a potholder. :-(
That's one tradition that isn't being passed along, because none of the
grandaughters have the least interest in learning to knit.

Kathy N-V